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This is a live hand from a recent 1/3 game. Villain in this hand is a solid reg who plays largely ABC poker well enough to take money from the cadre of OMCs typically playing at 1pm on a weekday. Hero is on the button, villain is the effective stack.

Pre-Flop

Hero is dealt KsJh on the button. Villain opens to $16 UTG+1, larger than her standard opening size of around $12. CO flats and Hero flats, all other players fold.

Flop: QhTh8h, $47 Pot

Villain continues for $20, CO folds.
Hero: Call or raise? I chose to call, feeling that many of villain's value holdings are not folding to one bet and my draw, while solid, is not strong enough to withstand a re-raise.

Turn: 8d, $87 Pot

Villain leads for $40.
Hero: Fold, call or raise? I feel my hand is still too strong to fold especially for this price. I also feel like the turn card is slightly better for my range, we have a similar number of full houses I think (her more QQ, me more TT) but I should definitely have more trip 8s than her. V also has plenty of weak value or drawing hands that may need to fold. My plan is to raise and fold to a re-raise. I raise to $140 and villain calls.

River: 9s, $367 Pot

Villain donk jams for her remaining $197.
Hero: Getting a bit under 3:1, fold or call?

I started by trying to count out value and bluff combos. I think my current hand (straight to the King) is a pure bluff catcher as villain is never value betting just a Jack based on the turn action. Definite value hands are AhKh and 3 combos of QQ. At least 2 combos of TT as well, possibly all 3 (her bigger-than-usual open makes me wonder if she has all the TT combos). The big question to me on the value side is do I need to worry about any other flushes. The Q and T are on the board and I block the J so AJ and KJ are out. With those out the next highest flush is A9 which assuming normal play I feel is not in her opening range. A slight complication is that the bad beat qualifier at this casino is currently all the way down to AAA44 and the OMCs have been playing more Ace-rag to chase, but to me villain doesn't seem the type to do that. Maybe she's playing the A4 and A5 slightly more than normal, so I give her one more combo of the nut flush for about 7-8 value combos.

On the bluff side the obvious bluff candidates are KK or AA with a heart for 5 combos. There are an additional 6 combos of AKo with a single heart, at least some of which (possibly the 2 with the Ah) may bluff. AQ/KQ/AT/KT with a big heart are potentially nicer bluff candidates because they block both high flushes and full houses, but I think it would be loose to consider any ATo/KTo to be in her range and even KQo seems like a stretch. If I give a single combo of AQo getting here and 2 combos of AKo with the heart, that gives 8 clear bluff combos. So based purely on these combinatorics and the price I'm getting, it seems like I should call.

However, I'm next thinking about the line V took and what story it matches up with best. V went bet, bet/call, donk jam. Leading flop and turn make sense with her bluffs or value so I don't think I'm learning anything there. But the call of my raise on the turn combined with the donk jam on the river seem to tell opposite stories. On the surface, the turn call looks like a nutted hand like QQ or TT trapping with the plan of checking the river and if I have a strong flush I'm gonna go for value probably, if I have a bluff she gives me a chance to pull the trigger with her just over half-pot stack remaining. But then the river jam into my turn action looks much more like a bluff because a hand like QQ is now shutting out any of my own AhTd type hands from trying to bluff.

I tried to tell the story of what each thought process may have been like from V's point of view facing the turn raise and then going to the river. I came to something like this:
Bluff, holding AhAs: I have a very strong draw and even some showdown value given that some of the hands he's raising turn with are weaker draws. His value is primarily trips, small flushes and TT/maybe QQ given that I block the nut flushes. The full houses are never folding regardless so it doesn't matter. Trips is a weak holding that may have to fold to a river jam and the small flushes may have raised the flop and may fold river given I have the nut flush in my range. I'll call and evaluate on the river if I need to jam or check/hero call. Ok, the river card misses me and completes some of his draws so checking to hero call/hope he gives up got worse, so I can jam with the nut flush blocker and if he doesn't have TT or KhJh he's in a world of hurt.
Value, holding QsQc: Okay awesome, I don't block any of the flushes and he's being very aggressive into me with effectively the nuts. I'll just trap here and check the river and call all his value bets and bluffs. Oh shit, a 9 came on the river, it turns out a fair number of his draws on the turn included a jack (AJo/KJo with a heart, for example) and now may check back if I check to him. Also, some of his trip 8s for value improved to a weak house (89). His strong value is probably calling me anyway so instead of potentially seeing it check through I should jam and hope he crying calls with the small flushes or straights.

The problem was both of those stories seemed reasonable to me so it didn't help me decide, lol. So what do you think, call or fold?

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